Nigeria gained independence in 1960 and became a Republic in 1963 but began its democratic journey in 1999 after 30 years of military rule with exception of Sheu Usman Shagari (1979 – 1983).
Since the inception of civil rule in 1999, six presidential elections have been organised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and only two political parties have tasted the highest office in the country.
In 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo of the People’s Democratic Party defeated Olu Falae, who was running on a joint Alliance for Democracy-All People’s Party ticket.
In 2003, the incumbent president, Olusegun Obasanjo of the People’s Democratic Party defeated his closest opponent Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) by over 11 million votes.
In 2007, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) defeated Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) by over 17 million votes.
In 2011, Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) defeated Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) by over 10 million votes.
In 2015, Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by over 2 million votes.
In 2019, Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by over 3 million votes.
As the 2023 election draws nearer, 17 political parties have presented their flagbearers, expressed readiness to win the coming poll.
However, there is a slight and an unusual change in the political narrative of the forth coming election.
A third force has emerged with unusual public acceptance from celebrities and young people mostly on social media.
This ‘third force’ seems to be brighter and more appealing than the former one considering its over-rated social media acceptance.
The coming poll will likely be a clear departure from the norms where only two major political parties battle for votes.
The two major political parties with national reach are as follow; the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The said third force that has been a subject of discussion in every social media platform is Labour Party and its presidential candidate is Peter Obi.
Most analysts have posited that it is likely possible for Labour Party to have good chances at the poll following the failures of the two major political parties, APC and PDP.
Some argued that electorates are tired of both major parties and are desperate for a better and promising one that would rescue the country from abject poverty among others
WITHIN NIGERIA observed the ongoing political developments in the country especially the internal struggles and strategies adopted by political parties to win the coming poll and carefully penned down likely records to be broken if Peter Obi of the Labour Party wins the poll.
South east as a zone
From 1999 till date, no easterner has ever become president of Nigeria. The first democratically elected president is Olusegun Obasanjo (retd) and he is a native of Ogun State, South-West, Nigeria.
His successor in 2007 was Umar Musa Yar’adua, a native of Katsina state, North-West, Nigeria.
After Yar’adua died in office, his vice; Goodluck Jonathan who is a native of Bayelsa, South-South became acting president and was eventually returned elected in 2011.
Nigerians sacked Goodluck Jonathan from office through votes in 2015 and elected Muhammadu Buhari (retd), a native of Katsina state, North-West. Muhammadu Buhari is currently running his final lap as a two-time president.
The major contestants in this 2023 presidential poll namely; Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of Labour Party.
Bola Tinubu, former governor and presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a native of Lagos State, South-West, Nigeria. If elected, he would be the second person from the zone to be elected president after Olusegun Obasanjo.
Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president and candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a native of Adamawa state, North-East, Nigeria. If elected, he would be the first person to be elected president from the zone since 1999.
Peter Obi, a former governor and presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) is a native of Anambra state, South-East, Nigeria. If elected, he would be the first person from the zone to become president since 1999.
Igbo as a tribe
The first democratically elected president since the return of civil rule in 1999 is Olusegun Obasanjo (retd) and he is a Yoruba man.
His successor, Umaru Musa Yar’adua who died in office as a president after being elected in 2007 is a Fulani man.
His vice-president, Goodluck Jonathan who was later elected as president in 2011 is an Ijaw man.
Muhammadu Buhari who was elected as president in 2015 and re-elected in 2019 is a Fulani man.
Bola Tinubu, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a Yoruba man. Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a Fulani man. Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) is an Igbo man.
If elected, Peter Obi who is a native of Onitsha, Anambra state would be the first Igbo to become president since the inception of civil rule in 1999.
Labour Party as a minority
Since the inception of civil rule in 1999, no minority party has ever won the presidential election. The Peoples Democratic Party won in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 respectively.
Ahead of 2015 election, the merging of some minority parties who are performing in their respective zones like ANPP, ACN and CPC to form a bigger one changed the political narrative of the country and sacked the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as the ruling party.
The coming together of minority parties extended the reach and garned more support locally from electorates. If elected, Peter Obi who is the presidential candidate of the Labour Party will become the first candidate of a minority party to become president.
Populism
It is a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.
A populist can be defined as a person, especially a politician, who strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.
Peter Obi is a populist and running his presidential race with less expectation from structures within his party.
Out of 36 governors in the country, Labour Party has none. Two out of 360 reps and one out of 109 senators.
Some analysts have argued that it would be very difficult and almost impossible for Peter Obi to win the poll with Labour Party structures because it has no national reach.
If elected, Peter Obi who is the presidential candidate of Labour Party will become the first politician to win the presidential election on the basis of populism