Two men who have nursed an ambition to govern the state have seen their aspirations take a dramatic turn in the wake of Obi’s move, forcing them to make tough decisions that could shape and influence not just how the electorate perceives and votes for them, but also determine what the future holds for them in politics.
Last Sunday, former governor of Anambra State and the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general election announced his resignation from the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Obi announced his resignation in a statement he personally signed and shared on his Twitter page. His exit from the party occurred four months after he officially joined.
Obi disclosed that his decision to leave the ADC is not unrelated to the leadership crisis rocking the party and the court cases that are causing considerable uncertainty and apprehension within the party.
Obi’s move has undoubtedly engendered a seismic shift in the nation’s political landscape causing many stakeholders and actors on the tempestuous political scene to change their strategy and rethink their plans. One of the places where Obi’s defection has had a profound impact and considerable ramifications, changing the dynamics and calculations of the 2027 election, is Lagos State. Two men who have nursed an ambition to govern the state have seen their aspirations take a dramatic turn in the wake of Obi’s move, forcing them to make tough decisions that could shape and influence not just how the electorate perceives and votes for them, but also determine what the future holds for them in politics.
The two men are Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour and Fusho Doherty. They both contested the 2023 Lagos State governorship election. Rhodes-Vivour contested on the platform of the Labour Party, while Doherty contested under the African Democratic Congress. Rhodes-Vivour performed excellently despite the unpleasant and undemocratic conditions under which the election was conducted. He finished second with 312,329 votes. However, the same cannot be said for Doherty who came distant third with a paltry 6,078 votes.
After the 2023 election, both men have done what they had to do to stay relevant in Nigeria’s unforgiving political scene and keep the flames of their dream to govern the state alive. Doherty left ADC for the Peoples Democratic Party Party but he returned to the ADC after the influx of prominent politicians to the ADC following Obi’s defection to the party. Early in the year, Rhodes-Vivour also dumped the Labour Party for ADC.
One common denominator in the movement of both men from one political party to another is Peter Obi. While Rhodes-Vivour sheer brilliance, grand vision, lofty ideas and impressive manifesto may have endeared him to many Lagosians who have grown weary and somewhat become resentful of the political class over how they have managed the affairs of state since 1999, there is not denying the fact that his performance at poll was significantly aided by the Obidient tsunami that tore devastatingly across the nation’s political landscape in 2022 and 2023. Many, including Rhodes-Vivour, rode on the coattails of Obi’s goodwill, popularity and appeal to build their social capital and actualise their political goal.
After the election and throughout the leadership crisis that beset the Labour Party after the elections, Rhodes-Vivour stood with Obi and they continued to navigate the treacherous socio-political landscape as comrades-in-arms. They would both join the ADC when the time came for them to continue their political journey on another ship, one not enveloped by dispute and crisis, at least that was the case at the time. Aside from Obi himself, Rhodes-Vivour is one of the few politicians if not the only one that Obidients are fond of, have immense respect for and are ready to put their money where their mouths are when it comes to helping him achieve his goal of becoming the governor of Lagos. As for Doherty, they couldn’t care less, they appreciate his astuteness and sagacity on matters of governance, and just like Rhodes-Vivour, acknowledge the fact that he has what it takes to lead Lagos State but don’t think he has done enough to earn the kind support and love they have for Rhodes-Vivour.
So when Obi left ADC to NDC, the belief and expectation of many, particularly Obi’s supporters, was that Rhodes-Vivour would follow suit not because they thought the latter could not do it alone or amount to anything politically but because they reckoned that it was the prudent and strategic thing to do in light of the unfolding political gamesmanship and intrigues ahead of the 2027 election. But a week after Obi’s defection, there was no sign or indication that Rhodes-Vivour would also join the NDC, leaving many to conclude that he had decided to stay at ADC and stake out his claim there. On Wednesday, he confirmed the doubts of many after he announced that he would remain in ADC to pursue his political goal.
Even though many hoped, wished and genuinely wanted him to defect from ADC because they felt the party was too encumbered by crisis and disputes for it to be a viable and reliable platform to achieve his ambition and realise his goals. When Doherty on Wednesday announced his exit from the ADC on Wednesday to join NDC, it quickly changed the whole calculations, permutations and dynamics of the Lagos State gubernatorial race.
Before Doherty announced his defection to NDC to join other politicians and elected public officers, who had flocked to the party after Obi moved there, Rhodes-Vivour largely still enjoyed the backing of the Obidients and other Lagosians who supported him in 2023 and were ready to support and work for him again in 2027 to help actualise his ambition of governing the state. But the Doherty move to the NDC is now forcing many who hitherto promised to support him to rethink their decision.
The core and majority of Rhodes-Vivour supporters and well-wishers are Obidients who are fiercely loyal to Obi. Doherty’s move to NDC and Rhodes-Vivour’s decision to remain in ADC have left them between a rock and a hard place when it comes to whom to pitch their tent with for the Lagos governorship election. They are divided. While some feel Rhodes-Vivour still deserves their full and unreserved support despite his decision to remain in ADC and not follow Obi to NDC as Doherty has remotely done anything or contribute to their cause to have a free pass at their support, others feel such a move is tantamount to political Russia roulette, warning that ditching a gubernatorial candidate of the NDC, where Obi is expected to emerge as the presidential candidate, to support Rhodes-Vivour is a move that will undermine Obi’s chance of winning Lagos.
Rhodes-Vivour has said his decision to remain in ADC is not rooted in personal gain but the conviction that it is where he needs to be as he and his supporters have built solid structures that carry the hopes and dreams of many to see and live in a different Lagos. One not beset by grand larceny, corruption, poverty and chronic infrastructural decision. Why replying to Nefertiti, a staunch supporter of Obi on X, who urged him to see the reason and wisdom in joining Obi in NDC, He wrote “Thank you so much for the love, the support not just for me, for the movement, for H.E Peter Obi, but also for Nigeria. Please believe that I will never ever take the support of the Obidients for granted. The energy, the drive and the support you gave me in 2023, I will forever continue to be grateful for.
I understand how you feel and how you see things in this moment. I only ask you for a bit of time. There is so much I wish I could explain. If everyone can see what a leader sees, that is no leader at all.
I remember how PDP supporters on this App ridiculed and laughed at me to scorn when I left LP in 2022, I remember how that story ended.
I only ask that you hold on till the end of the month. I promisethat you at the end of 2027 we will be closer than we were in 2023. Thank you and I thank all Obidients who have reached out. who took 5 hours of their time to listen and engage with me on Spaces yesterday. Thank you.”
With his reply, it appears Rhodes-Vivour has aces up his sleeve and has decided to keep his cards close to his chest for now. However, it will be very difficult for him to repeat his performance of 2023, when he gave the ruling party a run for their money, in 2027 with the current realities on the ground and unfolding drama and intrigues in the political space. The elections are still some eighteen months away and a lot can still happen in that time seeing how Nigeria’s politics is never short of intrigues, suspense and theatrics.
Finally, the decision made by the two leading opposition figures in Lagos will go a long way in determining how they perform at the polls next year should they both decide to throw their hats in the ring for the gubernatorial election. While Rhodes-Vivour is widely believed to be politically stronger than Doherty and has done a lot of groundwork and movement to strengthen his base and build on the inroads he made in 2023, Doherty, though less politically savvy and lacking the street credibility, is poised to have a better showing than Rhodes-Vivour in 2027 due to his pragmatism and strategic alignment.










