On Tuesday, the heads of the United States’ spy agencies estimated that 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in the conflict with Ukraine.
They said that although Russia was experiencing the consequences of the sanctions, the situation for Ukrainians may worsen, with food and water supplies in Kyiv possibly running out within two weeks.
“Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and instead may escalate,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the annual House of Representatives Intelligence Committee hearing on worldwide threats, where she testified with other intelligence agency directors.
Haines said Putin’s announcement that he was elevating his nuclear forces’ readiness was “extremely unusual” since the 1960s, but that intelligence analysts had not observed changes in Russia’s nuclear posture beyond what was detected during previous international crises.
“We also have not observed force-wide nuclear posture changes that go beyond what we’ve seen in prior moments of heightened tensions,” Haines said.
William Burns, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, echoed Haines’ assessment that Russia is unlikely to back down.
“I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now. He’s likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties,” Burns said.
Burns said he and CIA analysts do not see how Putin can accomplish his goal of taking Kyiv and replacing President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government with a pro-Moscow or puppet leadership.
“I fail to see how he can produce that kind of an end game and where that leads, I think, is for an ugly next few weeks in which he doubles down … with scant regard for civilian casualties,” Burns told the committee.
Given reports that Russia is cutting off basic supplies to Kyiv, home to 2.8 million people, Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said the situation in Ukraine’s capital could worsen quickly.
“I don’t have a specific number of days of supply that the population has. But with supplies being cut off, it will be somewhat desperate in, I would say, 10 days to two weeks,” Berrier said.
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