- Ex-depot petrol price around N585/liter; projected N680/liter due to current forex rate might require a N95/liter subsidy
- Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reports daily petrol consumption at 52 million liters; potential monthly fuel subsidy estimate is about N153 billion
Amidst the ongoing depreciation of the Naira against the US dollar, oil marketers are maintaining their stance on the potential escalation of petrol pump prices.
On August 24th, oil dealers and marketers emphasized that the current exchange rate of N920/$ makes it unsustainable for the petrol pump price to remain at N617 per liter. Despite this, the oil marketers noted that the Federal Government’s refusal to raise the petrol price implies that the commodity is possibly being “secretly subsidized” to align with the prevailing exchange rate situation.
Reports indicate that the ex-depot price of petrol hovered around N585 per liter on the mentioned date. Given the projected cost of N680 per liter under the current forex rate, it appears that the government might need to subsidize approximately N95 per liter.
In a recent update, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority disclosed that Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption stands at around 52 million liters. Calculating the estimated subsidy of N95 per liter and extending it over a month suggests that the government could potentially allocate around N153 billion monthly for fuel subsidies.
Speaking on this development, the National Public Relations Officer, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said
‘’I still maintain that since we are still importing petroleum products into this country, it has to do with forex. And once it has to do with forex, it means that so much naira will be chasing a few dollars. And since we don’t have the influx of dollars into Nigeria, the after effect is that the landing cost of petrol will continue to increase as long as the dollar continues to rise.
“The rise in dollar automatically leads to an increase in the cost of petroleum products, except the NNPCL is subsidising it through the Federal Government. I also recall the last statement by the Special Adviser to the President on Media, who said he got a brief from the president that the fuel price would not rise.
“That automatically means that there is quasi-deregulation and that Mr President is cushioning the price of petroleum products in relation to the dollar. So if the dollar is higher at the parallel market, it means that whatever is the offshoot, the Federal Government will continue to keep petrol prices within a price regime.
“And that regime currently is from N590/litre to N620/litre depending on the part of Nigeria you are buying it from. But if you allow the commodity to sell at the free market price, with respect to the hike in dollar currently, the cost of petrol should be around N680/litre and N700/litre.”
The Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, Ajuri Ngelale, had told State House correspondents last week, that President Bola Tinubu had instructed that the cost of petrol should not increase.