South Africa’s ANC Heads for Coalition After 90% of Votes Counted

• Former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) is gaining at the ANC’s expense, leading in KwaZulu Natal and nationally third
• The ANC, struggling in key provinces, may need alliances to retain power, signaling the end of its dominance

According to Al Jazeera, former President Jacob Zuma is emerging as a significant victor in South Africa’s general elections. His new breakaway party, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK), is poised for major gains at the expense of the ruling African National Congress (ANC).

With more than 90 percent of the votes counted by Friday evening, the MK is on the verge of seizing power in KwaZulu Natal, a province where the ANC has maintained dominance since the first post-apartheid elections in 1994. Nationally, the MK is in third place with about 13 percent of the vote, trailing the ANC, which has around 41 percent, and the principal opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), with 21 percent.

The MK’s success indicates a significant shift in voter support away from the ANC, particularly in its traditional strongholds. The ANC is also struggling in other key provinces, including Gauteng, where it is far from achieving a majority. These trends suggest that the ANC must seek alliances with opposition parties to form a national coalition government and retain power under President Cyril Ramaphosa. The party must also form coalitions to maintain control in provinces like Gauteng.

Analyst Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh commented on the situation, describing it as the “death of ANC dominance.” He noted that while there is uncertainty about the future, the change could bring new opportunities for accountability and reform. Mpofu-Walsh attributed the ANC’s losses to arrogance and a failure to address their shortcomings.

Independent political analyst Sandile Swana compared the ANC’s situation to other African liberation movements that have faced similar consequences for not fulfilling their promises. He cited Swapo in Namibia and Zanu PF in Zimbabwe as examples of parties that led independence movements but later suffered electoral setbacks.

Imraan Buccus, an academic and researcher at the Auwal Socio-economic Research Institute, stated that the election results reflect the ANC’s internal collapse. He drew parallels with other liberation movements in Africa, such as those in Zambia and Kenya, which have experienced similar declines.

Buccus also highlighted that the ANC’s failures and an unequal economy have contributed to the current election outcome. South Africa faces significant challenges, with the World Bank reporting that 55 percent of the population lives in poverty. The ANC’s three decades in power have seen increasing unemployment, now at 33 percent, alongside systemic corruption and inefficiency in government, leading to deteriorating living conditions for many South Africans.