- Nigeria’s inflation is projected to decline to 32.26% by 2024, with GDP growth expected to moderate to 3.1%
- The report presented two scenarios for the exchange rate, with the best-case scenario projecting a rate of N1,100 to $1 and the worst-case scenario projecting N2,000 to $1
According to a leading financial services group, Norrenberger, Nigeria’s inflation is projected to decline by the end of 2024 as both monetary and fiscal authorities intensify their efforts. The Norrenberger Economic Outlook (NEO), titled “Nigeria: Beyond the Reforms,” was released virtually on Thursday and also projected a GDP growth rate of 3.1% by the end of the year.
Presenting the report, Pabina Yinkere, Business Head of Norrenberger Assets Management, stated, “Inflation continues to be a major headache for the country and has built up primarily from COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, infrastructure deficit, high energy costs, uneven purchasing power, and fuel subsidy removal.” He added, “Subsequently, we have projected that inflation will moderate at 32.26% by the end of the year while GDP growth is projected to moderate at 3.1%.”
The report presented two scenarios for the exchange rate: a worst-case scenario where the rate would be N2,000 to $1 and a best-case scenario where it would be N1,100 to $1. The worst-case scenario assumes “increased global tensions, further increases in electricity tariffs, a fall in crude oil production below 1.2mbpd, as well as a dovish CBN policy,” while the best-case scenario assumes “oil production surpasses 1.5mbpd and the full operationalization of the Dangote Refinery, which will boost supply and improve economic activities.”
The report also highlighted that the largest contributors to the economy are the ones most adversely affected by exchange rate instability and interest rate hikes.
Tony Edeh, CEO of Norrenberger, noted that the outlook was merged with a panel session of seasoned financial experts who shared their perspectives and provided clear recommendations on economic growth and development in response to current challenges.