- OPEC forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, driven by non-OECD regions
- The Dangote Refinery is impacting European markets by reducing petrol imports, as Nigeria shifts from importer to exporter of gasoline
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts that world oil demand will expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, with a similar increase projected in 2026.
This comes amid the federal government’s estimate that crude oil production will exceed 2 million barrels per day.
In its latest monthly report for January 2025, released on Wednesday, the group also mentioned the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, which it claimed has disrupted European markets and cut petrol imports.
In the study, OPEC predicted a strong global economic expansion and solid oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026.
According to the analysis, demand in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) region is predicted to expand by 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD region is expected to dominate demand growth, accounting for 1.3 mb/d of the total increase in both 2025 and 2026.
On a regional basis, OECD oil demand is predicted to grow by roughly 0.1 mb/d year on year, driven completely by the Americas, while non-OECD oil consumption is expected to grow by around 1.3 mb/d, driven mostly by India, China, Other Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.”
“This outlook assumes continued inflation normalization through 2026, providing support for further adjustments in monetary policies in major economies. The services sector is expected to drive global growth, alongside an expected gradual recovery in the industrial sector, despite prevailing uncertainties,” the report said.
According to the report, the growth in global oil demand is expected to be driven by transportation fuels, particularly aviation and road mobility.
“Gasoline requirements are also set to see support from steadily rising road mobility in major consuming countries and regions, such as China, the Middle East, India and the US.
Both on-road diesel, including trucking, as well as industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries are expected to support diesel demand.
Light distillates are projected to be supported by petrochemical capacity additions and margins, mostly in China and the Middle East,” the report added.
On Dangote refinery, the report said, “The ongoing operational ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery and its gasoline exports to the international market will likely weigh further on the European gasoline market,” the report stated.
It further explained that Nigeria, a country historically dependent on fuel imports to meet its energy needs, is now freeing up gasoline volumes in global markets due to increased local production.
This development, OPEC added, will necessitate “New destinations and flow adjustments for the extra volumes going forward.”